The Great Fraud of the central banks!

16 03 2021

The financial crisis of 2008 came unexpectedly. Only few saw problems in the U.S. mortgage market and related derivatives (financial instruments). Most of us didn’t even understand all this, the supervision completely failed or was muted, every related financial product was rated AAA, and it was also interesting that the bankers, who invented all this new financial products, did not fully understand them. Even american central bank FED didn’t see any problems. As we know from history, the end result was the collapse of the fourth largest American investment bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008, which was the beginning of the global financial crisis.

We also felt this crisis in our country, as it caused the economic crisis, and especially the debt crisis, which in practice meant that interest rates on government borrowing rose sharply, so borrowing became very expensive, and a large part of state budgets would go in such case only for interest on debts. If countries are no longer able to repay their debts, a state goes bankrupt. And the bankruptcy of the state is the worst possible bankruptcy, as it is concretely felt by most citizens.

And how did the central banks then solve this problem?

Childishly simple! Literally childishly simple!

Instead of the term “Money Printing” (MP), they invented the term “Quantitative Easing” (QE) so that people would not understand too quickly that they actually started excessive money printing as we knew it in Yugoslavia and it eventually led to hyperinflation.

The term Quantitative Easing is calming, almost relaxing and suggests that you will get more money over time. Much more money. But it will be worth (much) less. Ups!

In the last few years central banks have printed (created) thousands of billions of euros, dollars, yen and other fiat currencies, which have no basis in increased GDP, and with this newly printed money they have began to buy government bonds as well as corporate bonds and some other financial papers. This central banks market intervention virtually erased interest rates. Even more. The consequence of such a central bank policy is the fact that many government bonds now even have negative interest rates. This way, central banks have also become a kind of huge bad banks, as the state of a country or a company is no longer any factor, because they are pulled off the market. It’s like turning off an altimeter on a plane. Government bonds of Greece, Germany or Italy are the same for our central bank. CCC, along with AAA and BB. As with derivatives in 2008. One huge Lehman Brothers are now clearly becoming central banks themselves! But it is true that central banks have one big advantage over Lehman Brothers. They can print unlimited amount of money and can’t default. The next logical step for central banks will be to start buying corporate shares and real estate to stabilize the market in the event of downward adjustments? What about the debt of individuals? Why not buy even this debt, if the money is printed so easy? There will be no more risk on the investment side!

For someone, who is not familiar with these financial operations or more correctly – machinations (myself too), it is strange that this newly printed money did not cause high inflation, as we were used to it in Yugoslavia?

Prices (and thus inflation) can rise if people’s purchasing power increases or supply decreases. However, this central bank operation did not increase the purchasing power of the population, so wages and other benefits did not rise. The increase in productivity, technological development and the economic recovery took care of that the supply of general goods did not fall. This newly printed money went to financial institutions and the lenders, who with this money then of course didn’t go to the nearest shopping center and bought bananas, rice and sausages, but invested it elsewhere. Here is the essence of it all. This newly created money was invested elsewhere. It was invested in stocks, real estate, gold, silver, bitcoin etc. So this crazy printing of money has actually led to high inflation on the investment side! On the assets. And in this way, the rich become even significantly richer in a snap. The main sponsor of this? The world central banks with its relaxed monetary policy! People, however, were given consolation by cheap loans for very expensive real estates and flats, the prices of which they themselves inflated. Bizarre? No, no! This is actually ingenious! Just not for a little man who is a victim of such a broken system.

If in 2008 there was a real estate bubble in the USA, now there are real estate bubbles around the world. USA, Europe, Canada, Australia, China, everywhere real estate has been getting more expensive by 10% – 20% or even more a year in the last few years! However, due to very low interest rates for mortgage loans, which are close to zero in many countries, the real estate fever is only rapidly increasing. This is professionally called FOMO. Fear Of Missing Out.

The U.S. stock market looks like it did in 1929 and has become the new Las Vegas where everyone plays. A Tesla share has a P/E (ratio between the market price of a share and earnings per share) of more than 1000. The normal P/E is between 10 and 20. P/E 30 is historically high! P/E 1000 is then what?

Fugayzi, fugazi. It’s a whazy…

Today exist so-called index funds (ETF’s), where a small investor does not have to deal with trifles such as P/E and stock price valuation. A small investor can search on Google that the US stock index S&P 500 has gone up 300% in the last 10 years from 2011 to 2021! So, today you invest in an index fund and in 2031 you collect 300%! If there is a real start of the economy, it will not be only 300%, but 400%, maybe even 500%. You can’t fail if you bet on the American economy, aren’t you? If they are in trouble, they will print themselves out of trouble. Easy money obviously also for ordinary John Doe, but John Doe is forgetting that past returns are no guarantee for the future! The managers of these index funds have to use the inflows of money to buy the shares that are in these indexes, regardless of whether the valuation of these shares is already so absurdly high and completely at odds with reality. I think I mentioned somewhere that the situation looks like it did in 1929 on Wall Street. Wall Street has a mechanism to stop trading in excessive falls. However, it has no mechanism to stop exponential growth.

What the central banks have caused with such a easy monetary policy is, on the one hand, that a huge amount of money has flowed from government and corporate bonds into other investments and thus inflated asset bubbles, while at the same time, with historically low interest rates on loans, practically anyone can inflate further this bubbles, as it would be a shame not to take advantage of these opportunities. And so at the same time, they make debt addicts for the next 30 years! This is called the debt trap. Highly indebted people are also easier to control, as they have a tight credit loop around their necks. And the same goes for the countries! You are never independent with such a huge debt!

A classic global bubble economy backed by cheap paper and excessive amount of debt!

As if all this was not enough, they are chasing money out of the banks in all possible ways in euro zone even with the negative interest rates on deposits, so they are additionally pouring gasoline on the fire, which has already flared up to epic proportions. And the ones, who get into such a scheme at the end, usually lose the most when the bubbles pop. Bizarre? No, no! This is actually ingenious! Just not for the little man who is a victim of such a broken system.

Officially calculated inflation of around 1.5% and well below 2 % is, in my humble opinion, another smart scam, as officially calculated inflation can be adjusted if it is changed the way inflation is calculated and with what percentage individual items in the calculation are taken into account. Consumers usually feel much higher inflation, and at the same time, underestimated official inflation means savings on wages, pensions and various social benefits, which are adjusted to inflation, so, in this way, they further reduce purchasing power! Basic idea behind all this is, in my humble opinion, to pay off huge debts by the gap between higher GDP and lower living standards of the population. Simply put – Work more for less. Smart, but doesn’t work for now.

Part of the smart scam of the official inflation calculation is the fact that housing prices are excluded from the calculation, because they are considered as an investment, even though we all know that people need housing and apartments to live in and the apartment can not be just an investment, like a share of Tesla or bitcoin or gold! Who came up with such an idea?

Someone said that if you give the government the task to calculate inflation, it’s something like if you give the mafia to investigate organized crime. Clearly they won’t find any!

This central bank money “counterfeiting” fraud, however, was only exacerbated by the outbreak of a new coronavirus epidemic and the problem was solved again by printing a new, even more enormous amount of money, again unfounded in the GDP growth, as the GDP during epidemic even collapsed! Once the printing machines are started, they are very hard to stop! Like they say, money printing is like a drug addiction. And today, there is no need to start printing machines at all, as money is mostly just a numbers in banking information systems. Today It’s easier to create a trillion USD or euros then to bake a loaf of bread! This is supposedly not an anomaly of the monetary system!?

But the debt problem could also be solved in other ways, say by partial write-off and debt restructuring. However, in practice, this would mean that even the richest lose, which was never really an option, as they actually set The rules of the Game for us all! Even the concept of the state is obviously completely imaginary, because, as it turns out in practice, the state is nothing! I will write again, because this is very important! The state is nothing! After all, states are just individuals, with their narrow interests and power to influence decisions. And here it has so far turned out that the richest have practically absolute power and what is the biggest problem, these individuals are also very intelligent and in turn all great philanthropists! Evolution seems to have no safeguard against the most intelligent individuals hijacking the entire (advanced?) civilization.

The idea of a “bankrupt countries – extremely rich few individuals” is, in my humble opinion, the exact opposite of ingenious.

So far, they have been stealthily stealing from savers in banks through inflation and zero interest rates on deposits. This is professionally called stealth devaluation. Sooner or later high inflation is likely to follow and the next big theft will be felt by the vast majority and younger generation don’t even know, what high inflation is. High inflation, however, is just another major scam in the economy and form of hidden taxation. We have seen extreme examples of this already in Yugoslavia and they have seen it in Germany after the First World War, they have seen it in Hungary after the Second World War, they see it in Venezuela, in Zimbabwe and many other places around the world. And central bankers will make excuses that everyone did it (is doing it). Not just the Fed, but the ECB, the BoJ (Central Bank of Japan) and everyone else. The dollar, euro, yen and other currencies are sinking together, so if you look at it quickly, it doesn’t look like they are actually sinking! This is professionally called competitive devaluation, because competitive sinking doesn’t sound well.

When your money printing machines are running long time on full throttle, you have already lost control of your currency, regardless of all aircraft carriers and drones you have as backup. This is one of the basic lessons of the world’s famous Yugoslav School of Economics. And Yugoslavia was a nice Proof of Concept. Many people lost money and savings during this experiment. We had so much Quantitative Easing (QE) in Yugoslavia, that in the end, we were all tired of this monetary relaxation.

Now I think I understand why Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, bought 1,5 billion US dollars of bitcoins. He’s making a fool out of the US dollar. This is a symbolic act. Insider joke on US central bank Fed.

It seems necessary to take into account the axiom that central banks always work in the interests of the richest individuals (!), not ordinary people, who try to survive from month to month and are not able to cover even few 100 € of unforeseen expenses without borrowing!

I often remember a scene from the movie Margin Call, which shows the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008. Two investment bankers (Lehman Brothers) drive in an expensive sports car around New York and say to each other… “Look at these people. Wandering around with absolutely no idea what’s about to happen.”

In my opinion, this is going to be even bigger than after the financial crisis in 2008. The only difference is that this time many people know it, a lot of people warn and central banks also know very well what they are doing and where this is leading! As long as it goes like this, it goes like this, when It doesn’t go like this anymore, then …

It didn’t work.

The question to which I have not yet been able to find a good answer is…

How to bet against the world’s central banks?

I just hope that a solution is not creation of a global startup, which will mass-produce cheap wooden coffins and urns.

ECB! When someone stealthily steals from me and I notice it, I will tell him directly. And I am telling you! But this is the end of the trust right away. The euro is obviously a paper, similar to the Yugoslav dinar, except that the exchange office is no longer on the Ljubljana food market, to change it immediately to Deutsche mark. And today is also Deutsche mark no more. Unfortunately.

If you think all people are stupid, you are mistaken for at least one. You’re human too!

I can’t change anything. But I can tell you what (I think) is going on…

Free Bonus Content

We all thought that inflation was really well below 2% last few years, as they lied to us, but one day we opened a real estate website and found out that housing prices have risen as much as 30% in just the last three years. And it is predicted that will rise by 10% annual rate in the next few years!

This is like in Argentina. We don’t have any inflation! Right. But what numbers do you looking at?

Today we know how this came and what really meant the statement of the then head of the ECB Mario Draghi (Super Mario) – Whatever it takes. And It took a lot! Lots of printed money without any basis. 5 years zero interest rates in banks, more than 20 billion euros in savings, 2% year inflation (true value is over 3%) = theft of savers in range of the 2 billion euros through stealth devaluation! Not bad, is it? But this is just the extent of theft of bank savers in Slovenia. What is the extent of theft across the euro area? 300 billion? More than half trillion euros? Even more? What about the whole world? Trillions of USD, euros etc!?

If you steal a T-shirt at the general store, you can go to jail for a year or even more. If you steal two billion (half trillion) euros from people, you are what? Central banker? Once they steal from small savers at the bank, who are just trying to save something and then give it to those, who already have way too much for the next hundred lives, it’s for me The End Game. This is a shameful act! In Yugoslavia, at least we knew that it was necessary to convert dinars into marks or gold as soon as possible. Now they steal a lot more imaginatively, and you need some time to figure it out, where the scam is and what’s going on. Stealth devaluation then?

Years ago, only connoisseurs knew that the central bank in Frankfurt am Main had begun to print money en masse and where this would lead over time. Now hairdressers know this, taxi drivers know it and anyone who opens real estate websites can see it! The central bank can pursue this so called full throttle policy next few years, inflating existing asset bubbles much, much more. In this case, real estate prices can go up by another 50% or more, as this has become the most popular investment in our country and around the world too. The damage has already been done, as the euro as a currency is devalued in the eyes of many of us and needs to be converted to something else as soon as possible! Currently, the most popular conversion is to concrete and bricks.

But devaluation of currency is never just devaluation of the currency. It is always also devaluation of the trust to the economy of this currency!

Even Blind Monkey can go out on the real estate market and buy a new flat in Ljubljana for 10.000,00 €/m2 or a new flat in Frankfurt am Main for 8.000,00 €/m2 with borrowed money. And prices will go up, and up, and up. But this is not the sign of economic growth nor a healthy economy! This is just the sign of panic. And I am scared, when I see such panic! Such global panic. Healthy economy and everyone is looking for a safe haven?

In the environment of stealth devaluation and cash is trash paradigm, everyone with savings on bank accounts is now forced to go on a markets full of bubbles and invest. Small fishes, thrown to the sharks. This looks more like gambling, than investing and isprofessionally called financial repression. And when you start to gamble, you are just step away to go for a cheap loan. But cheap loans are also fuel for bubbles! Classic positive feedback loop. Obviously, the goal of the central banks is no longer just price stability, but full market manipulation.

It is well known that largest american investment banks like JPMorgan manipulate price of gold and have even paid some small fines for this practice. It is possible, that the price of gold is manipulated by the central banks too, because if gold price would skyrocket, people would know that something is very wrong with the currencies and many central banks would replace most of the USD with gold in their reserves.

On this bumpy route, the bend (turn?) will come again and then it will be necessary to brake hard. I don’t know how it will look like, but I know who will get hurt again. A little man! This is an axiom, that has so far proved to be absolutely true.

The ECB has become quite an ordinary Topčider am Main (Topčider was Yugoslav central bank, obsessed with printing money)! And the same is true for many other central banks around the world. With a monetary policy like this, you have to hold on to your wallet!

The economy is supposed to be based on trust? But who could trust thieves!?

Full disclosure: Dr. Onyx does not have a doctorate in economics. Yet! He is not even a Doctor. But he is one of a kind. The special kind. Not a very pleasant kind.

Answer from ECB is here.

End Note (1): After watching this video, “Quantitative Easing” (QE) seems to be a Japanese innovation from 90’s. The phrase quantitative easing was invented by professor Richard Werner. Some argue that QE is not money printing but assets swap, because central bank creates new bank reserves and exchange this for long term bonds. But bank reserves are money. If bank reserves were not money or near money, then depositors could not withdraw their savings from the banks. Through this operation, banks can lend more money and lending money is a main way of money creation. Investment bank probably have more money to invest in other assets with higher yields. QE starts as asset swap, but at the end of this process effect of QE is new money creation what inflated assets prices. If this money finds it’s way to the consumers, it can inflate consumer prices also. QE may increase trust in the central banks in sens that they will protect assets prices and help inflate bubbles, but should not increase trust into economy! They are carrying out QE because economy is in trouble, don’t they? Or is just a fraud?

End Note (2): If central bankers really wanted to solve the “problem” (If it is really a problem!?) of low inflation by printing money (QE), as some central banks claim, then this problem can be solved very trivially with helicopter money and not QE. This way, printed money is distributed directly among people and inflation appears very quickly! This fraud was in my opinion from the very beginning designed to inflate asset prices (wealth transfer) and the price for this will pay poor and middle class through hidden taxation called inflation! Nothing new. Seen many times before in history.

And I hope, this fraud will find its way into the history books. Pictures of main actors will not be hard to find.

Additional teaching material:
How The Rich get richer
The Wolf Of Wall Street
South Park – Margaritaville
Bank of England honestly about QE (one of the most honest central bankers!)
QE Infinity
Privileges and immunities of the European Central Bank
Peter Praet, Chief Economist at the ECB, trying to explain how money is made

Citat dneva

29 12 2021

Sarkazem je najnižja oblika duhovitosti, a najvišja oblika inteligence.

Oscar Wilde

Cena vikendov v Kranjski Gori

29 12 2021

Letos se vikendi v Kranjski Gori prodajajo za pol milijona evrov oziroma za eno polno veliko polivinilasto vrečo bankovcev po 100€. Čez nekaj let se predvideva, da bodo vikendi v Kranjski Gori stali že milijon evrov oziroma dve do vrha polni veliki polivinilasti vreči bankovcev po 100€.

Temu pojavu v Zimbabveju rečejo preprosto kar inflacija.

Dopisovanje z guvernerjem Banke Slovenije

29 12 2021

Od: Doktor Onyx
Date: V tor., 16. nov. 2021
Subject: Prehodna inflacija?
To: Boštjan Vasle


v razmislek posredujem tole:

Kot sam opažam, centralni bankirji po mojem mnenju usklajeno in odkrito lažejo ljudem, potem ko se nekaj izkaže za laž pa iščejo izgovore. Konkretno zadnji primer je laž o prehodni inflaciji, pri čemer se inflacija viša iz meseca v mesec. Po mojem mnenju bi morale centralne banke vzbujati zaupanje pri ljudeh, saj fiat valute temeljijo zgolj in samo na zaupanju! Ko je zaupanja v fiat valuto konec, sledijo dolge vrste čakajočih pred bankami.

Če sedanja visoka inflacija (v ZDA prek 6%, nekatere baltske države, članice evro območja, celo prek 8%, Nemčija prek 4%) res ni tudi posledica monetarne inflacije (prekomernega tiskanja denarja), zakaj bi potem zmanjševali QE in dvigali obresti? Ta ukrep verjetno ne bo rešil probleme na ponudbeni strani, če so seveda res samo problemi na strani ponudbe.

Sam sodim v generacijo, ko se še dobro spomnim, kako smo čakali na Ljubljanski tržnici v vrsti, da smo lahko zamenjali dinarje v nemške marke. Situacija z inflacijo je bila v nekem obdobju tako absurdna, da si lahko dejansko zaslužil nekaj denarja, če si v istem dnevu naredil več menjav denarja, saj menjalnice niso uspele tako hitro spreminjati tečajev, kot je denar izgubljal na vrednosti. In takrat so številni tudi izgubili prihranke. 

Po več kot 30 letih se po mojem mnenju situacija ponavlja, čeprav mnogo bolj prikrito, kot je bilo to v Jugoslaviji. Številni se zavedajo, kaj se dogaja in poskušajo evre čim prej zamenjati v nekaj drugega, kar ne bo tako hitro izgubljalo vrednosti. Večina pri nas se odloča za nakup nepremičnin. Ampak na bankah je še 25 milijard evrov denarja, ki bo poskušal najti zaščito pred inflacijo. Možnosti pa ni veliko, ker je finančna represija očitno zelo dobro poštudirana in namenjena temu, da se napihuje premoženjske balone in s tem še mnogo bolj koncentrira premoženje v rokah peščice. 

Ne upam si ugibati, kako se bo ta globalni monetarni eksperiment končal. Vem pa zanesljivo, kdo bo tudi tokrat nastradal! In če se bo končal kot polomija upam, da zgodovina do odgovornih ne bo imela nikakršne milosti. 

Lep pozdrav,
Dr. Onyx

Adijo rezervna valuta

02 11 2021

Od konca druge svetovne vojne je ameriški dolar rezervna svetovna valuta, pri čemer je bil na začetku vezan na zlato, torej so lahko države kadarkoli zahtevale konverzijo dolarjev v zlato, leta 1971 pa so to vez prekinili, saj je praktično onemogočala učinkovito tiskanje denarja, kot ga poznamo danes, pri čemer je iz tistih časov centralnim bankam ostalo precej zlata za rezerve. ZDA imajo teh starih zalog zlata prek 8.300 ton, vse centralne banke skupaj pa imajo menda v svojih rezervah čez 35.000 ton zlata, kar predstavlja skoraj 20% vsega zlata. Torej zlato dejansko ni surovina, saj ga industrija potrebuje zelo malo, ampak je v prvi vrsti rezervna valuta za rezervno valuto, nekakšen denar nad ostalimi valutami, nasproti katerem vse ostale valute s časom izgubljajo vrednost, kar je posledica inflacije. Zato tudi ceno zlata določajo predvsem makroekonomska gibanja (hujše so težave, bolj raste cena zlatu) ter monetarni ukrepi, kot so obrestne mere in podobno.

V ameriških dolarjih se danes sklepajo posli z nafto, večina dolga je v dolarjih, dolarje kot rezervno valuto pa hranijo tudi številne centralne banke, saj z njo lahko med drugim vplivajo tudi na menjalne tečaje. Tudi veliko mednarodnih poslov je sklenjenih v ameriških dolarjih. Zadnje čase se sicer vse pogosteje postavljajo vprašanja, ali je dolar sploh še primerna rezervna svetovna valuta, sploh glede na obseg tiskanja novih dolarjev in višino dolga. Po mojem mnenju pa se bo to vprašanje še bolj začelo postavljati takrat, ko bodo uvedli digitalno valuto (CBDC – Central Bank Digital Currency) FEDcoin ali kakorkoli se bo že to tehnološko čudo imenovalo.

Ta digitalna valuta bo delovala verjetno podobno, kot danes že delujejo številne kripto valute, s to razliko, da bo nad njo imela praktično popolen nadzor ameriška centralna banka – FED. To v praksi pomeni, da bo lahko FED na daljavo zaplenil ali uničil FEDcoine, ki jih bodo imele Rusija, Kitajska, Iran, Afganistan ali kakšna druga država, ki ne bo delovala v skladu z njihovimi interesi. Ne razumem, kdo bo lahko valuti s takimi lastnostmi in možnostjo manipulacije sploh še zaupal pri sklepanju mednarodnih poslov? Po moje je z dolarjem kot svetovno rezervno valuto takrat konec in svet bo moral poiskati alternativo. Nekaj, kar bo od držav neodvisno in vredno globalnega zaupanja.

Torej Bitcoin?

Po moje absolutno neuporaben za kaj takega, med drugim tudi zaradi svoje zelo deflatorne narave. Bi pa znala kakšna druga kripto valuta, ki bi imela za rezervo kaj bolj oprijemljivega, pa to seveda ni nujno zlato, zasesti izpraznjeno mesto rezervne svetovne valute. Bo pa seveda morala izpolnjevati nekatere kriterije in imeti nekatere lastnosti, da bo za kaj takega sploh uporabna. Mednarodne posle je težko sklepati v valuti, ki ti lahko izgine čez noč, ali pa se ji vrednost skokovito spreminja.


28 10 2021

Po nekaterih podatkih, dostopnih na spletu, naj bi okrog 700 ameriških milijarderjev samo v času epidemije Covid-19 postalo bogatejših za 2.100 milijard USD oziroma v tem kratkem času manj kot dveh let so svoje premoženje povečali za 70%. Večinoma na račun rasti cen delnic. Torej Covid-19 je kar se tiče premoženja najbogatejših nekaj najboljšega, kar se jim je lahko zgodilo in praktično brez da mignejo s prstom so zaslužili na ta račun skoraj toliko, kot prej s poslom. Proizvodnjo električnih avtomobilov, spletnimi omrežji, spletnimi trgovinami, programsko opremo.

Največja zasluga za tako povečanje premoženja sicer ne gre sami epidemiji, ampak ukrepom centralnih bank, ki so se na epidemijo odzvale tako, da so natisnile enormno količino denarja v zelo kratkem času. Natisnili so na tisoče bilijonov USD, evrov itd. in veliko tega denarja je pristalo na borzah po svetu, predvsem pa na ameriški borzi, ki je v času, ko se je ekonomija skoraj ustavila, zrasla za več kot 100%. Ampak medtem ko se je premoženje najbogatejših zaradi teh ukrepov tako zelo povečalo v tako zelo kratkem času, večina ostalih posledice teh ukrepov občuti kot visoko inflacijo, podražitve na vsakem koraku, devalvacijo valut in posledično še večje razvrednotenje prihrankov ter zmanjšanje kupne moči.

Centralni bankirji so postali tako nekakšno nasprotje od Robina Hooda. S svojimi potezami jemljejo večini, da lahko bogati peščica. Zame ena največjih, če ne celo največja globalna kraja v zgodovini človeštva. Njihov cilj danes ni več stabilnost cen. Glavni cilj centralnih bank je rast borznih indeksov.

Ampak glede na to, kakšno enormno povečanje premoženja je povzročila epidemija Covid-19, se tem ameriškim milijarderjem po mojem mnenju sedaj mnogo bolj kot ukvarjanje s poslom splača vložiti del tega denarja v razvoj novih virusov, saj je za njih epidemija očitno mnogo bolj donosna kot posli, s katerimi se ukvarjajo. Covid-22, Covid-24…Proizvajalci cepiv pa tudi ne bodo imeli dosti proti.

Pravi mali biserček med ameriškimi milijarderji pa je Elon Musk. Naravnost genialna je njegova izjava v zvezi s predlaganim ameriškim davkom za milijarderje (walth tax), po katerim bi pri njih obdavčili celotno premoženje in ne samo realiziran zaslužek recimo ob prodaji delnic.

Na twitterju se je Elon Musk na to odzval:

vir: twitter

Torej ko neumni državi (v tem primeru ZDA) zmanjka navadne raje za obdavčit, potem pridejo bedaki do njih, ameriških milijarderjev. In Musk ima prav. Neumna država (v tem primeru ZDA) je natisnila na tisoče in tisoče bilijonov in s tem premoženje milijarderjev še bistveno bolj povečala, potem pa pridejo jokat k njim, da naj nekaj vrnejo nazaj!? Res, kakšni idioti. Če so natisnili tisoče in tisoče milijard, naj pač natisnejo še nekaj novih tisočev milijard za razne infrastrukturne projekte in socialo. Zakaj je potrebno težit milijarderjem? Inflacija pa pač bo kar bo.

Kako bo izgledal ta svet čez 50 let, si ne upam niti sanjati. Verjetno bo precej manj kot 1% ljudi imelo v lasti čisto vse. Tudi vojsko in policijo.

Anticepilna statistika

16 09 2021

Pri nas je proti Covid-19 polno cepljenih približno 50% prebivalcev. Kot sem zasledil podatek, je trenutno okuženih in tudi hospitaliziranih okrog 20% takih, ki so bili cepljeni, kar je po mojem mnenju kar visoka številka. Če bi bila cepljena celotna populacija, bi bilo med okuženimi in hospitaliziranimi cepljenih potem 100%, torej procentualno kar petkrat več kot sedaj, ko je cepljena samo polovica!

Toliko o učinkovitosti cepiva.

Če kdo potrebuje nadarjenega matematika, me seveda lahko kadarkoli najame. S pomočjo statističnih metod lahko dokažem praktično karkoli. Tudi ovržem teorijo o ploščati zemlji.

Kdo vse tiska denar?

25 08 2021

Raziskava med Britanskimi parlamentarci je pokazala, da jih 85% ne ve, kako nastaja denar. To je zaskrbljujoče. Med splošno populacijo je po mojem mnenju ta številka še precej slabša. Kar je tudi zaskrbljujoče. Kot vse kaže, tudi veliko ekonomistov ne ve, kako točno nastaja denar. To je smešno in hkrati tudi zaskrbljujoče.

Ko sem raziskoval, kako smo prišli v situacijo, da banke ne dajo več praktično nikakršnih obresti za bančne vloge (depozite) in kako se lahko nepremičnine dražijo z 10 do 20% na leto, pri čemer pa je uradno izmerjena inflacija samo 1,5%, sem se srečal s pomembnim vprašanjem, kdo v bistvu sploh ustvarja nov denar oziroma kot temu pogovorno rečemo kdo v tem sistemu sploh “tiska denar”.

Izraz “tiskanje denar” sicer danes ni najbolj posrečen, ker pod tiskanjem denarja razumemo ponavadi dejansko tiskanje fizičnega denarja, torej bankovcev in kovancev, denarja v taki obliki pa je v obtoku razmeroma malo, samo nekaj odstotkov. Večino denarja danes predstavljajo številke v bančnih informacijskih sistemih. Včasih, ko še ni bilo informacijskih sistemov in bančnih kartic, so veliko več denarja morali fizično natisniti in če se jim je pri ustvarjanju novega denarja zalomilo, se je kaj hitro lahko zgodilo, da je prišlo do hiperinflacije, tiskarne denarja so delale v treh izmenah noč in dan, ljudje pa so z vrečkami denarja hodili po kruh, ker je bil denar vreden manj, kot papir na katerem je bil natiskan. Danes izraz “tiskanje denarja” uporabljamo tudi zaničevalno, ko se norčujemo iz prekomernega in neodgovornega ustvarjanja novega denarja, kar ima lahko tudi zelo hude posledice tako za ekonomijo, kot posameznika.

Pomembno vprašanje torej je, kdo lahko ustvarja nov denar in s tem vpliva na količino denarja v obtoku?

Zadeva z ustvarjanjem novega denarja je v podrobnostih bolj zapletena, kot je videti na prvi pogled in če nimaš vsaj doktorata iz makroekonomije, je težko razumeti kakšno bolj zahtevno gradivo na to temo, včasih pa si tudi različne informacije nasprotujejo. Marsikaj tudi še vedno ne razumem ali pa nisem prepričan, da razumem pravilno. Vem pa nekaj malega več, kot sem prej in sem v bistvu presenečen, kako napačno predstavo sem imel o tem.

Jaz sem mislil, da nov denar ustvarja centralna banka glede na obseg dobrin in storitev v ekonomiji, s katerimi se trguje, vendar to je kot vse kaže dejansko daleč od resnice. Nov denar ustvarjajo kar komercialne banke, ko podeljujejo kredite. Torej mala “tiskarna denarja” je lahko praktično vsaka neugledna banka za ovinkom, ki ima licenco za opravljanje bančnih storitev. Ustvarjanje denarja v sodobni ekonomiji je torej ustvarjanje kreditov, pri čemer so krediti nekakšen časovni stroj, saj življenje iz prihodnosti prenesemo s kreditom v sedanjost. Torej si lahko že danes privoščimo nekaj, kar bi si sicer lahko šele nekje v prihodnosti in to menda povzroča gospodarsko rast ter verjetno lahko tudi močan glavobol prihodnjim generacijam. Ne drži pa to, kar si morda glede kreditov večina misli in sicer da je komercialna banka nekakšen posrednik med tistim, ki denar ima (varčevalec) in tistim, ki denarja nima in ga potrebuje, pri čemer si za to storitev banka vzame procente, torej obresti.

Ko greš na banko po kredit, banki daš neke vrste obveznico. Gre za podpisan list papirja, obljubo, da boš posojen denar nekoč vrnil nazaj z obrestmi. Zraven si lahko banka zagotovi še kakšne dodatne garancije, poleg obljube. Banka na podlagi tega ustvari depozit na tvojem računu z nekaj kliki na računalniku in ko ta denar nakažeš nekomu drugemu kot kupnino, recimo za stanovanje, lahko s tem denarjem počne naprej kar hoče. Ustvarjen je bil nov denar in za to ni bilo nikjer nikomur nič vzeto. Torej zato, da je banka nekomu dala kredit, ni nekomu drugemu (začasno) vzela privarčevana sredstva ali šla po ta denar na nek račun pri centralni banki.

Banka pri svojem poslovanju potrebuje neke rezerve, ki so odvisne od obsega poslovanja. Nekaj rezerv se oblikuje na računu pri centralni banki, nekaj rezerv verjetno ima tudi banka sama. Pomembno vlogo ima tudi kapital banke, ker to je pa tista spodnja meja, ko se lahko za banko začnejo hude težave, hkrati pa predvidevam določa, kako velika lahko postane banka. Ampak tega nisem šel podrobno raziskovat, čeprav ni nepomembno za stabilno delovanje bančnega sistema.

Naslednje logično vprašanje potem je, zakaj pa banke potem sploh potrebujejo varčevalce, če lahko kredite ustvarjajo praktično iz nič?

Glede na to, kako lahko je dejansko ustvarjati nov denar iz nič, so očitno v sodobni ekonomiji varčevalci nezaželeni, ker privarčevan denar je neporabljen denar, neporabljen denar pa pomeni samo manjšo gospodarsko aktivnost in s tem manjši BDP. Cilj sistema je, da ljudi vzpodbuja k čim večji potrošnji. Dolgove je pač potrebno vračati. V prihodnje pa bodo verjetno uvedli sistem, kjer se ti bo denar po določenem času izbrisal, če ga ne boš potrošil.

Ko pogledaš v spletno banko transakcije, ti postane jasno, da kot komitent neke banke oni na tebi služijo, saj ti zaračunajo praktično vsako bančno mikro storitev. Vodenje računa, plačilo prek trajnikov, nakazila… skratka tu se skrivajo sicer majhni posamični prihodki za banko, ki pa se seštevajo, tako da se verjetno kar nabere zajetna vsota zaračunanih stroškov.

Pred leti so imeli varčevalci možnost, da so sklenili z banko pogodbo o vezavi sredstev za daljše obdobje in banka je bila pripravljena za to plačati precej visoke obresti, recimo okrog 5% pri daljši vezavi. Zakaj točno so to počeli, če za ustvarjanje kreditov teh sredstev menda sploh ne potrebujejo, mi še ni povsem jasno. Morda za “investicijsko bančništvo” in so ta vezan denar investirali kam drugam, kjer so računali na višji donos, kot pa so plačali obresti. Lahko da morajo tudi pri ustvarjanju kreditov oblikovati neke rezervacije. Kakor jaz trenutno vse skupaj razumem, je centralna banka tista, ki določa ceno denarja, torej obresti in s tem seveda vpliva na marsikaj. Če bi recimo centralna banka postavila ceno denarja 7% je za komercialno banko potem ceneje, če si zagotovi dolgoročna sredstva za poslovanje pri varčevalcih po 5% obrestni meri, kot da plača centralni banki za denar 7%. Od kje centralni banki denar za posojila komercialnim bankam je drugo vprašanje. Kot se je izkazalo pri operaciji QE (kvantitativno sproščanje) pa lahko centralna banka ustvari praktično neomejeno količino denarja, ker pri njej kakšnih omejitev praktično ni. Da je zadeva še bolj komplicirana, si tudi banke med seboj posojajo denar na medbančnem trgu in si za to zaračunavajo obresti.

Ampak vsega tega danes ni več, ker so obrestne mere praktično že leta na ničli in dvomim, da ima še kdo vezan denar na banki po, 0,1% obrestni meri. Temu se strokovno reče finančna represija, saj s tem silijo varčevalce da umaknejo denar v bolj tvegane naložbe, če se želijo zaščititi pred inflacijo. Pri nas večina umika denar iz bank v nepremičnine.

Torej kljub temu, da je banka odobrila cel kup kreditov, lahko teoretično vsi varčevalci vzamejo ven denar kadarkoli. Očitno depoziti varčevalcev dejansko nimajo s krediti nič. Kaj bi banka storila, če se vsi hkrati odločijo, da dvignejo vse prihranke, ne vem. Vem pa, da se temu reče bank run. Verjetno bi tako kot na Japonskem leta 1997 najprej nastala v bančnih krogih velika panika, potem bi na vsak način medijsko poskušali zadevo prekriti, ker zadnje kar si bančni sistem res želi je splošna panika in naval na banke, nakar bi verjetno iz centralne banke pripeljali dovolj gotovine, da vsaj za silo pomirijo varčevalce. Odkar ni več zlatega standarda, kjer je bilo v ozadju denarja potrebno imeti fizično zlato, gre pri denarju samo še za zaupanje in nič drugega. Bankovec za 100 € ima vrednost samo toliko časa, dokler mi verjamemo, da je toliko vreden. Ko zaupanja v valuto ni več, so takoj dolge kolone pred bankami in bankomati, saj ljudje poskušajo priti do denarja, da ga čim prej spremenijo v nekaj, čemur še zaupajo. Sesutja valut se po svetu seveda tudi dogajajo.

Večina ve, da je potrebno kredite z obrestmi vred vračati. Ker so krediti nastali praktično iz nič kot nov denar na banki, se mi poraja vprašanje, čigav je potem ta denar, ko ljudje odplačujejo kredite? Menda se ta denar izbriše (uniči), ko se kredit odplača. Če to drži in če hkrati pade kreditna aktivnost bank, se potem lahko zgodi tudi to, da se količina denarja v obtoku bistveno zmanjša. Ampak to je po moje malo verjetno, ker tega si ne želijo, saj to vodi potem v deflacijo, ker denar pridobi na vrednosti, saj ga je manj v obtoku. Ne vem tudi kaj bi banka storila, če kredit vrneš s kovčkom polnim denarja. Verjetno to ne bi zažgali ali dali v razrez?

Kot vemo banke lahko zaidejo v težave kljub temu, da lahko ustvarjajo nov denar. Pri kreditih se jim lahko zgodi, da kreditojemalec kredita ni več sposoben vračati. Ampak ker je bil ta denar na novo ustvarjen, pri tem ne more biti nihče oškodovan, ker niso nekomu vzeli, da so nekomu dali. Tu zanemarjam dejstvo, da s prekomernim ustvarjanjem novega denarja razvrednotijo obstoječi denar v obtoku, torej dejansko marsikomu jemljejo! Predstavljam si, da lahko, ko je takih kreditov veliko, banka postane kapitalsko neustrezna in ne zadosti več bančnim pravilom ter je potrebna ali dokapitalizacija ali pa gre na pokopališče bank. Težava za banko se verjetno lahko tudi pojavi, če denar slabo investira in zapravi denar varčevalcev oziroma zapravi kako drugače izposojen denar. Ne vem pa točno kakšne so omejitve za komercialne banke glede investiranja. Če je banka dovolj velika, je lahko prevelika, da bi si lahko privoščili njen propad. V takem primeru sledi “bail out”, kar v praksi pomeni, da se sanacija preloži na pleča davkoplačevalcev. Torej velike banke imajo vedno v ozadju safety net in si lahko privoščijo več hazarda. Ampak odkar je leta 2007 padla ameriška investicijska banka Lehman Brothers, ima verjetno marsikdo v bančnih krogih cmok v grlu ali je res dovolj velik, da je prevelik, da bi padel? Če je padla peta največja ameriška investicijska banka, lahko ob naslednji finančni krizi pade morda Deutsche bank ali Intesa Sanpaolo? Lahko propade celo Ljubljanska banka? Ne, to verjetno ne.

Banke očitno kljub temu, da lahko ustvarjajo nov denar s kreditiranjem, na tak način ne morejo rešiti sebe. Torej banka, ki bi se znašla v težavah, ne more ustvariti novega kredita in si ga podeliti sama sebi ter se tako rešiti iz težav. To bo morda v prihodnje spremenjeno in ne bo več potrebna sanacija bank s strani davkoplačevalcev.

Za tistega, ki ga skrbi BDP, razvoj in prihodnost je morda pomembno vprašanje tudi to, ali kdo sploh nadzira oziroma obstaja kakšne mehanizem, za kakšen namen se kredite sploh podeljuje? Namreč kredite se lahko najame za kakšno poslovno dejavnost, ki bo ustvarjala dobiček in nova delovna mesta, lahko za nakup nepremičnin, kar bo lahko pripeljalo do nepremičninskega balona, če je teh kreditov podeljenih preveč ali pa za splošno potrošnjo, kar pa lahko vodi v visoko inflacijo, če količina izdelkov ali storitev ne ustreza s krediti ustvarjenemu novemu povpraševanju.

Kot sem zasledil statistične podatke, se očitno največ kreditov v sodobnem bančništvu podeli kot hipotekarne kredite, torej za nakup nepremičnin in kredite raznim finančnim ustanovam, v precej manjšem obsegu pa gre za potrošniške kredite in kredite gospodarstvu. Sploh ta tako imenovani finančni sektor je postal v zadnjih desetletjih pravi mastodont, okrog katerega se vse vrti in obrača ogromno denarja. V bančnih krogih so kot kaže najbolj priljubljeni hipotekarni krediti, ker so na videz najmanj rizični, saj so zavarovani z vrednostjo nepremičnine, ki se z njimi kupuje. Ker pa gradnja še zdaleč ne dohaja povpraševanja, se s temi krediti večinoma ne ustvarja česa novega, ampak samo napihuje cene obstoječih nepremičnin. Za bankirje je verjetno tudi lažje in manj stresno odobriti hipotekarni kredit, kot pa kreditirati zagon novega podjetja.

Kaj se počne s krediti je kot vse kaže bolj ali manj prepuščeno bankam, ki se odločajo o odobritvi kreditov. Ko so obrestne mere nizke, so posamezniki in gospodarstvo motivirani za najem kreditov, torej se v tem času ustvarja veliko novega denarja. Posledica tega so lahko razni premoženjski baloni, kar pri nas opazimo v zadnjem času lahko kot močan porast cen nepremičnin, v tujini pa rastejo tudi številni borzni trgi in še marsikaj. Tudi gospodarstvo v takih okoliščinah pride lažje in ceneje do denarja. Podjetja lahko najamejo kredite za razvoj dejavnosti, ali pa za odkup lastnih delnic, kar je zopet samo ena izmed oblik napihovanja naložb. Poceni denar lahko tudi povzroči obstoj številnih slabih podjetji, ki preživijo na trgu samo zaradi tega in bodo ob zaostritvi denarnih razmer vsa po vrsti propadla. Tu kot kaže ni vzpostavljenega nekega sistema, kjer bi nekdo dejal, da so krediti po 0% samo recimo za razvoj novih tehnologij in ustvarjanje produktivnih delovnih mest, ne pa za napihovanje nepremičninskega balona, nakupe delnic, bitcoinov ali kakšno drugo špekulacijo.

To se izkaže kot zelo problematično, saj vodi v tako imenovane boom-bust cikle, ki pa očitno mnogim ustrezajo, saj je sam sistem vzpostavljen tako, da vodi do takih ciklov. Torej je nestabilnost vgrajena že v sam finančni in monetarni sistem. Vedno pa širšo javnost prepričujejo, da je tokrat drugače in ni vzroka za skrbi. In širša javnost vedno temu nasede.

V boom obdobju se običajno balone močno napihne, predvsem s pomočjo poceni kreditov, torej s pomočjo na novo ustvarjenega denarja, potem pa baloni počijo, ko zmanjka denarja za njihovo nadaljnje napihovanje. Torej ni več zanimanja za kredite, ker se večini zdi, da je vse že močno predrago ali pa so že vsi kreditno sposobni zadolženi do vratu in čez. Očitno je povpraševanje po kreditih kar dober pokazatelj, kaj se bo zgodilo v prihodnje. Pok balonov ponavadi povzroči pravo opustošenje v bančnem sektorju, ker so te balone napihnili kot rečeno tudi ali celo predvsem s pomočjo podeljenih kreditov, ki so lahko zavarovani slabo, ponavadi kar z vrednostjo tistega, kar se s kreditom kupuje in ob poku balona lahko močno izgubi na vrednosti. Nagel padec vrednosti naložb lahko povzroči proženje vedno novih in novih prodaj, kar samo še močno pospeši padanje vrednosti. Tu ponavadi pridemo zopet na svoj račun davkoplačevalci, ker moramo reševati banke, ki so prevelike, da bi se jih pustilo na pokopališče bank. Bust cikle ponavadi poleg težav bank pomeni takoj tudi hujšo gospodarsko recesijo, saj je gospodarska aktivnost usodno odvisna od kreditne aktivnosti. To pa takoj pomeni veliko težavo za vse, od države do posameznika.

Zraven ustvarjanja novega denarja se hitro lahko pojavi vprašanje inflacije. Inflacijo potrošniki občutimo kot podražitve potrošniških dobrin in to inflacijo uradno izračuna tudi statistika. Ni pa to nikakor edina inflacija, ki se lahko pojavi, ko se poveča količina denarja v obtoku. Rast cen nepremičnin uradna statistika ne šteje pod podražitev potrošniških dobrin, ker štejejo nepremičnine med naložbe. Tu je potem razlog, zakaj je uradna inflacija lahko 1,5%, nepremičnine se dražijo pa z 10 do 20% na leto, kar je pa po moje zelo visoka inflacija. Če se kupna moč ljudi ne poviša, torej se ne dvigujejo plače in pokojnine, potem se običajno ne more pojaviti visoka “potrošniška” inflacija, kljub močnemu povečanju denarja v obtoku, seveda ob predpostavki, da se ne zmanjša bistveno stran ponudbe. Pri potrošniških dobrinah proti visoki inflaciji deluje poleg tehnološkega razvoja, ki ima deflatorni učinek, tudi dejstvo, da imamo ljudje samo en želodec. Na novo ustvarjen denar kroži drugje in tam povzroča visoko inflacijo, ki pa jo uradni izračun potrošniške inflacije ne izmeri. Ampak pri inflaciji gre za napihovanje in napihuje se dejansko količina denarja v obtoku, kar ima za posledico rast cen.

Na spletu sem našel podatek za Veliko Britanijo, da so pri njih v zadnjih 40 letih na tak način povečali količino denarja v obtoku za 11,5% letno. BDP dvomim, da jim je rasel s tako hitrostjo, tako da tu očitno obstaja precejšnje nesorazmerje med ustvarjenimi dobrinami in storitvami, s katerimi se trguje in količino denarja. Posledica takega povečanja količine denarja v obtoku je sigurno tudi inflacija, torej razvrednotenje vrednosti denarja. V tem primeru britanskega funta.

Kaj počne pri vsem skupaj centralna banka in v evroobmočju njeni sateliti, kot je Banka Slovenije, je zame tudi še precej neraziskano področje. Zaenkrat je videti, da zlasti nadzira in določa pravila bančnemu sistemu, vodi statistiko ter tudi določa ceno denarja, torej obresti. Centralna banka je verjetno v sodelovanju s sateliti tudi edina, ki lahko zares fizično tiska denar, torej gotovino, ki jo potem razvažajo z varovanimi kamioni naokrog. Centralne banke lahko tudi ustvarjajo denar praktično v neomejenih količinah, kar se je izkazalo pri kvantitativnem sproščanju (QE), čeprav že same komercialne banke ustvarjajo veliko novega denarja. Torej bistvo delovanja centralne banke sploh ni ustvarjanje novega denarja, ker to počno v velikem obsegu komercialne banke. Prednost centralne banke je tudi v tem, da ne more bankrotirati. Edini problem je, da imajo nadzor samo nad lastno valuto. Torej ECB v Frankfurtu ne more tiskati dolarjev ali ostalih svetovnih valut. To je lahko velik hendikep, kar smo spoznali v Jugoslaviji, saj smo imeli dolgove v dolarjih, tiskali smo lahko pa samo dinarje. To se včasih lahko grdo konča in pojavu se reče hiperinflacija, ko je valuta pod nadzorom centralne banke povsem razvrednotena. Ni pa po moje hiperinflacija nek naključen pojav. To se naredi načrtno, ker ne najdejo več drugih možnosti.

Količino denarja merijo z oznakami M0, kar pomeni vso gotovino v obtoku, M1 je gotovina in vloge na vpogled, M2 je M1 ter dodatno še vezane vloge. Ameriški dolar je potreboval 200 let, da je količina denarja M2 narasla na 8 bilijonov. Potem je potreboval samo 10 let, da je narasla na 16 bilijonov, torej za novih 8 bilijonov. Potem pa je potreboval samo še eno leto, da je narasla na 20 bilijonov. Torej samo v enem letu še za dodatne 4 bilijone. Fantastična produktivnost, kar se tiče ustvarjanja novega denarja. Realni BDP jim pa raste s par procenti. Za evro območje je podatek M2 trenutno 14 bilijonov evrov.

Morda kot zanimivost, čeprav to ni bistveno za ustvarjanje novega denarja, ima centralna banka v Frankfurtu (ECB) nekakšen status diplomatskega predstavništva in je ograjena z bodečo žico, visoki uradniki centralne banke imajo diplomatske potne liste in kar je morda še najbolj nenavadno, menda ne sodi pod nobeno juresdikcijo, torej Evropske centralne banke ne more preiskovati nobena policija ali tožilstvo. Očitno ima popolno imuniteto in ne odgovarja za svoja dejanja nikomur, kar menda zagotavlja njeno neodvisnost. Večkrat sem tudi zasledil, da sodi ECB med najmanj transparentne centralne banke, ampak dvomim, da bi bile ostale bistveno drugačne, saj je vse to skupaj en velik “shadow banking“.

Obstoječi finančni in monetarni sistem vsekakor močno (močno moram poudariti) preferira tiste, ki so blizu informacij in blizu ustvarjanju novega denarja ter poznajo delovanje tega sistema.

Zato pa v šolah praktično ne učijo ničesar o tem! Če bi veliko ljudi poznalo podrobnosti delovanja monetarnega in finančnega sistema, bi se ali uprli, ali pa se obnašali drugače.

Važno da vemo, kako se je končala Francoska revolucija, mar ne?

All good for now

23 08 2021

As long as inflation is rising linearly and the stock market is rising exponentially all good! When it will be reversed, we will have soon hyperinflation.

Easy money

04 08 2021

I sold my kidney and half of the lung and payment then invested into the stock market. So far, so good. Investment up 10%. I hope for some nice dividends too.

Someone asked me why I didn’t sell my brain too. I tried, but couldn’t find buyer even It is almost unused.

Pok nepremičninskega balona

04 08 2021

Kot sem opazil, se sedaj ponovno veliko ljudi sprašuje, kdaj bo počil novi “nepremičninski balon” in se bodo nepremičnine zopet močno pocenile, tako kot po letu 2008.

Večina je sicer prepričanih, da se bo to slej ko prej zgodilo in da tako visoke cene stanovanj niso vzdržne. Glede na to, koliko plač moraš dati za nakup novega, 70 m2 velikega stanovanja, je menda slovenski nepremičninski trg med najdražjimi v Evropi. Za nakup 70 m2 velikega novega stanovanja je potrebno pri nas dati že skoraj 9 povprečnih letnih bruto plač oziroma 13 povprečnih letnih neto plač. In če predpostavimo, da lahko z našo povprečno plačo, ki je sedaj okrog 1200 €, z velikim odrekanjem privarčuješ na mesec morda četrtino, je potem dejansko potrebno varčevati 52 let, torej več kot je celotna delovna doba! Očitno bo potem res potrebno pri nas čim prej močno dvigniti delovno dobo, sicer ljudje v celem življenju ne bodo privarčevali niti za navadno stanovanje, kljub vsemu napredku in tehnološkemu razvoju!

vir: Finance

Da je stanje pri nas tako, je krivda po moje nekaj tudi na strani države, saj niso na tem področju naredili čisto nič in je vse skupaj povsem prepuščeno trgu, oziroma bolje rečeno raznim lobijem in interesnim združenjem. Svoje k temu prispeva še odsotnost kakršnegakoli resnega nepremičninskega davka pri nas. V zadnjem času pa so cene nepremičnin pognali v nebo zlasti poceni krediti in 0% obrestna mera na bančne depozite, kar varčevalce prisili v iskanje bolj donosnih in tudi tveganih naložb. Pri nas že tradicionalno večina ob tem pomisli najprej na nepremičnine. Torej konverzija denarja in prihrankov v beton in zidake.

Po mojem mnenju pa ni nujno, da bo ta “nepremičninski balon” tudi zares počil. Skoraj bolj verjeten se mi zdi tokrat scenarij, da bomo čez nekaj let za denar dobili od 30% do 50% manj, kot dobimo danes in sicer zaradi razvrednotenja oziroma devalvacije, ki je že in še bo posledica prekomernega tiskanja denarja (pravilneje rečeno ustvarjanja novega denarja v obtoku). Torej je v današnji ceni nepremičnin že vračunana visoka prihodnja inflacija! To tiskanje denarja poteka že nekaj let, pospešek pa je dobilo z epidemijo Covid-19. V takem primeru potem današnje cene stanovanj pri nas izpadejo precej realne oziroma se bodo lahko do leta 2025 podražile še za nadaljnjih 30% ali celo več na bolj zaželjenih lokacijah, če se bo nadaljevalo obdobje poceni denarja ter lahko dostopnih hipotekarnih kreditov. In po napovedih oziroma bolje rečeno grožnjah centralne banke v Frankfurtu se bo to nadaljevalo vsaj še nekaj let. Za mlajše generacije prava katastrofa, saj do lastne nepremičnine praktično ne bodo mogli več priti in bodo celo življenje prisiljeni živeti kot podnajemniki, ki ne bodo mogli privarčevati ničesar. Kaj bodo potem na stara leta, ko pokojnina ne bo zadostovala več niti za pokritje najemnine, povprečna življenjska doba pa bo 100 let, se verjetno sedaj ne sprašuje nihče. Verjetno vsi potihem upajo na legalizacijo evtanazije.

Dodatno k visoki rasti cen nepremičnin prispeva dejstvo, da se nepremičnine čedalje bolj prodajajo kot investicije, saj poskušajo ljudje tudi na tak način ohraniti vrednost prihrankov, ki jih najeda finančna represija – razlika med 0% obrestno mero na banki in inflacijo. V takem primeru sama cena nepremičnine niti ni toliko pomembna, bolj je pomembno to, da se nepremičnine še naprej dražijo z vsaj 10 do 20% letno. Čim več, tem bolje. To je Kitajski model investiranja oziroma vlaganja v nepremičninsko piramidno shemo, pri čemer na Kitajskem vsaj gradijo tudi nove nepremičnine, pri nas pa se večinoma samo dražijo obstoječe. Glede na to, da je pri nas na bankah menda že čez 25 milijard evrov prihrankov, je goriva za rast cen nepremičnin še zelo veliko.

V primeru, da bi morale centralne banke zaradi zelo visoke inflacije na hitro in močno dvigniti obrestne mere ali pa če bi prišlo do hujše, dlje časa trajajoče recesije, ko bi ljudje masovno izgubljali službe, pa seveda ni povsem nemogoč tudi pok nepremičninskega balona in ponovitev leta 2008. Ta scenarij bodo po mojem mnenju tokrat poskušali preprečiti na vse možne načine, saj je spomin na leto 2008 še svež. V tem primeru bi bile v velikih težavah zelo hitro tudi številne banke in države, ki so zadolžene še bistveno bolj kot leta 2008. Močan dvig obrestnih mer, pri tako visokem dolgu, pa po mojem mnenju ni verjeten scenarij, saj to bi takoj pomenilo pok vseh premoženjskih balonov, ki so nastali v obdobju izredno poceni denarja. Ampak obdobje zategovanja pasu je očitno daleč za nami. Sedaj smo v obdobju prekomernega tiskanja denarja in poceni kreditov. Nova divja 20 leta.

V zadnjem času se veliko govori tudi o velikem resetu, domnevni ideji svetovnih elit, katere glavni moto naj bi bil “You’ll own nothing and you’ll be happy.”

V osnovni naj bi šlo tu za idejo (nekateri bi temu rekli teorijo zarote), da navadni ljudje prihodnosti ne bi imeli v lasti nič.

V ZDA in še marsikje po svetu se že dogaja, da veliki nepremičninski investicijski skladi s pomočjo natiskanega denarja in hipotekarnimi krediti z 0% obrestno mero masovno kupujejo stanovanja in hiše za oddajo. V Nemčiji imata Deutche Wohnen in Vonovia v lasti 550.000 stanovanj. To se kar sklada z idejo velikega reseta, saj so tudi na tak način nepremičnine čedalje dražje in nedostopne, tako da že sedaj marsikomu ne ostane nič drugega kot drag najem. Če pride do naslednje finančne krize in bodo ljudje zopet masovno ob stanovanja in hiše, bodo ti skladi potem lahko poceni pokupili še vse to. In glede na to, da se kljub domnevni gospodarski rasti življenjski standard ljudi bistveno sploh ne viša, ali pa celo pada, se zdi, da si bodo v prihodnosti lastniško stanovanje ali hišo lahko privoščili samo še redki, ostali pa bodo prisiljeni celo življenje živeti v najemu. Sodobni sužnji, ki bodo lahko upravljaji samo še z daljinskim upravljalnikom od televizije in pakirali škatle v Amazonovih centrih za izpopolnitev.

Ima pa ta ideja velikega reseta vsaj eno dobro plat.

Oporoke prihodnosti bodo zelo kratke.

Banka Slovenije je še do prek kratkim trdila, da slovenske nepremičnine niso precenjene, nakar so ploščo obrnili in sedaj trdijo, da so že precenjene. Kaj je razlog za tako hitro spremembo mišljenja, ne vem. Po moje so tudi sami spoznali, da zaradi monetarne politike ECB nepremičninska mrzlica pri nas dobiva še močan pospešek in poskušajo na tak način vsaj nekoliko zavreti rast cen nepremičnin. Ampak to bo marsikoga samo še bolj prepričalo v tem, da se bodo nepremičnine še naprej močno dražile in to s stopnjo od 10 do 20% letno. Torej bolje kupiti danes zelo drago stanovanje, kot naslednje leto, ker bo isto drago stanovanje še vsaj za 10% dražje.

Uradno priznana inflacija pri nas je že 5%, dejanska verjetno bližje 10%. Obresti na bančne depozite so še naprej 0,1% ali še manj. V takem ekonomskem okolju se zdi stanovanjski kredit z 2% fiksno obrestno mero ali celo še manj dobesedno razprodaja, pa ne glede na to kako drage nepremičnine se kupuje s temi krediti. Marsikdo ob tem tudi računa, da bo te kredite pomagala odplačati dolgoletna visoka inflacija, nekako tako, kot se je to zgodilo v Jugoslaviji. In to je povsem možen in realen scenarij.

Veselo po nove hipotekarne kredite, dokler traja razprodaja! Priložnost zamujena…

Leta 2022 bo kot kaže še veselica na našem nepremičninskem trgu. Če seveda ECB ne bo dvignila ključne obrestne mere na 5% ali še več. Kar pa kot rečeno praktično ne more. Bolj verjetno se bodo zaradi dragih nepremičnin zvišale močno tudi najemnine, zaradi tega se bo še dodatno zvišala inflacija, zaradi visoke inflacije bodo morali dvigovati plače in inflacijski cikel se bo ponovil. Prekomerno ustvarjanje novega denarja ima očitno vedno enak učinek. Tu se kaj dosti ni spremenilo od časov Jugoslavije.

Kako bo izgledal naš nepremičninski trg leta 2025, si težko predstavljam, ne bom pa nič presenečen, če se bodo kupci takrat stepli za vsako nepremičnino, ki se bo znašla na trgu in katere vrednost ne bo nekaj kratnik realne tržne vrednosti.

Nepremičninska mrzlica ni posledica ekonomskega razcveta ampak posledica panike zaradi prekomernega tiskanja denarja in posledično visoke inflacije.

Preberi še:
Kdo vse tiska denar?
Investicijske nepremičnine

Ponosen sam nase

13 07 2021

Ko sem prebral, kakšne vse težave morajo reševati pri razvoju sistemov za avtonomno vožnjo vozil ali plovil in kakšni vse senzorji so za to potrebni, sem postal ponosen sam nase, kaj vse zmorem s samo dvema očesoma, dvemi ušesi, šestim čutom in očitno zelo sofisticirano serijsko vgrajeno AI. Že kot otrok sem znal pravilno razpoznati odsev telegrafske štange v luži na cesti in nisem panično zaviral s kolesom, ampak takrat se mi ni to zdelo nič posebnega. No, je pa 4 milijarde let razvoja kar dolga doba. Upam, da sistema za nočno gledanje ne bodo razvijali naslednje 4 milijarde let?


07 07 2021

Pri nas je vse politika. Če se greš cepit proti Covid-19, je to glas za Janeza Janšo, ker on zagovarja cepljenje. Če umreš zaradi Covida-19, je to glas proti Janezu Janši, ker si dokaz, da slabo obvladuje epidemijo. Za pristaše levice praktično mučeniška smrt.

Diktati iz Budimpešte

25 06 2021

Nekoč smo diktate dobivali iz Beograda, danes pa iz Bruslja oziroma menda celo iz Budimpešte. Diktate iz Budimpešte bi še nekako razumel, dokler so oni sprejemali naše komunalno blato. Samo zakaj diktate iz Budimpešte sprejemati sedaj, ko ne marajo več našega blata?

Zahtevni pogoji za astronavte

24 06 2021

Evropska vesoljska agencija (ESA) je objavila razpis za astronavte in med razpisnimi pogoji so vsaj magisterij iz naravoslovja, tehnike, matematike, računalništva ali medicine (doktorat je prednost) in licenco za (testnega) pilota, vsaj tri leta delovnih izkušenj na omenjenih področjih, tekoče znanje angleščine in vsaj še enega tujega jezika, močne analitične veščine, spretnost javnega nastopanja, ciljno usmerjenost, napredno razmišljanje, sodelovalnost.

Očitno zaenkrat še ne mislijo v vesolje poslati nobenega filozofa ali politologa. Je bil pa zato v vesolju že šimpanz in celo pes. Samo takrat menda pogoji niso bili tako zahtevni. Ali pa so bili šimpanzi in psi takrat drugačni? Ne, to verjetno ne.

Answer from ECB

23 06 2021

This is the answer from ECB to The Great Fraud of the central banks!:

Dear Mr Onyx,

Thank you for your email of 18 March 2021 and sharing your views and observations with the European Central Bank (ECB).

The coronavirus has had an unexpected and large impact on the global economy. Together with the “shutdown” of national economy, this corresponds from the economic perspective to the combination of a contractionary supply shock and an aligned demand shock. 

Back in the second quarter of quartal 2020, a series of prestigious economic institutes had already forecast a double-digit decline in gross domestic product for Germany, Europe and also globally.

Against this backdrop, governments and central banks have launched unprecedented supported packages of previously unimagined dimensions. This will no doubt be accompanied by significant costs, although Germany can benefit from and live off its previously very sound financial policy. 

Previous bouts of hyperinflation (with monthly inflation rates in excess of 50%) have always been caused by sovereigns assuming excessive volumes of debt over longer periods of time in connection with monetary financing by the central bank. This will certainly not be the case in Europe. By their very nature, the current measures are one-off measures of limited scope and duration, even if they will need to be maintained for a somewhat longer period of time. 

For further information, you may also wish to follow the ECB strategy review via the ECB Listens Portal here:

Yours sincerely,

Public enquiries team 
Internal and External Engagement Division 
Directorate General Communications

Therefore, according to the ECB, there will be no inflation in excess of 50% per month. We can be reassured. I can’t see any other clever conclusion from this short answer.

However, the excessive “money printing”, or as it is now professionally called “quantitative easing” (QE), did not start with the epidemic in 2020, but it started as early as march 2015. A direct consequence of a such monetary policy, which has been going on for six years now and only intensified in 2020, is a very high inflation of assets prices, including the real estate and the devaluation of saver’s savings in banks through inflation and 0% interest rates on deposits. This was overlooked in the answer or is probably the only appropriate comment on this “no comment”. That’s how we roll.

In such a monetary environment, banks do not need savers any more, as the necessary liquidity and bank reserves can be provided directly by the central bank itself. By printing excessive amount of new money. But in practice this also means that the vast majority of money in the banks is no longer tied and can be withdrawn on request. So an ideal environment for a bank run.

Although I know that the central bank does not have any educational tasks, it nevertheless seems to me that they are giving the wrong signals to the younger generation in the sense that money saving is a bad thing and that savers are the first to steal. Steal legally! Young people then understand this as it is necessary to work with money in the same way as with tokens in casinos. Place bets. And right now, most young people, in my opinion, are betting on the crypto market. Admittedly, some will take home a new expensive car, but in the event of a major market crash, many will lose all the savings. This is the weakness of casinos. Winning depends on luck and it can never be a serious saving.

The European Central Bank can imagine that such a monetary policy also helps young people to find housing more easily. It is true that loans are more easily accessible and the interest rate on mortgage loans is low, but such a monetary policy has led to high growth in real estate prices. So they offer cheap loans for very expensive apartments! On the other hand, many young people are not creditworthy at all to buy a home, as they do not have enough money saved for a deposit or have a bad credit rating. In fact, such a monetary policy benefits the wealthiest the most, who can buy second, third, fourth or fifth investment real estate with cheap loans. Whether this is intentional is difficult to judge. In my opinion it is. After all, central bankers are not stupid and can see well what their monetary policy has caused. Actually they knew this in advance, because they are repeating Japan monetary experiment! They see well and know well whom it is taken and who benefits most from such a monetary policy. The fact that interest rates on consumer loans have not dropped significantly, despite the fact that banks now have money practically for free, also speaks in favor of the thesis that this is a deliberate fraud aimed at inflating the value of investments! If they really wanted to stimulate consumption, they would also lower interest rates for consumer loans.

Long term QE is intelligent assets price pumping scheme, but ordinary people are just losing savings and purchasing power because of stealth devaluation and the amount of debt is fast building up. This hardly leads to sustainable long term economic boom. More probable is another bust cycle, even deeper than the last one.

Maybe central banks expect that now all of a sudden every little bank saver will become overnight an investment banker and closely monitor central bank moves, interests on government bonds, do stock analyzes and monitor graphs of various indexes and move money between different investments. Or entrust the savings to various funds or asset managers, which of course they take care of themselves in the first place and usually make a lower return than an ordinary index fund (ETF) with a minimum management fee. And usually such a small investor is the first victim of market crash, as he or she withdraws too late or sells at a loss at the wrong time.

The very idea of ​​stealthy stealing savers in banks in order to make the richest even much richer is in my opinion financial genocide, which must get its place in history books!

On the one hand, I may even be trying to understand how central banks want to increase consumption and thus inflation with such monetary policy measures, but the effect may be just the opposite and inflation will rise for other reasons. Namely, today everyone can notice how fast real estate are becoming more expensive, how the prices of US shares in particular are growing, how the price of gold has risen, and the prices of various speculative cryptocurrencies in general. As I once wrote, even “ordinary” people want to get rich, not just spend and buy a new kitchen, a new TV or a new car every couple of years, which causes the so-called “money velocity” and contributes to an increase in officially calculated inflation.

So an environment of zero interest rates and easily accessible money because of excessive money printing is actually one big advertisement for investment, not for consumption!

If you think about it, in such an environment you are not going to buy a new car, a new kitchen or a new TV, but you are investing all available money, or even better you are going to a bank for the highest possible loan, with the lowest possible true fixed interest rate, buy with this money investment real estate and become a landlord. But all of these, with high credit for the next 30 years, will be poor consumers for the next 30 years, as they won’t have much of a salary left to be able to spend and buy things they may actually don’t need. This, in turn, is the nightmare of consumer capitalism. Consumers, who can’t or don’t want to spend. Given that many people with such a long-term loan are not even aware of how long period is 30 years and what all happens during that time.

Such monetary policy by central banks has, as has been said, led to a sharp rise in assets prices and this is due to money printing, not economic growth. Many of these assets now have unrealistic, highly inflated value. However, this problem of unrealistic investment valuation can be solved in two ways. Either all these bubbles burst and the owners of these investments lose a lot of (fictitious) money, or is such a high valuation justified by high inflation, because in this case money loses on value. Given that this time the central bankers seem to have turned against ordinary people and the middle class so that the rich can be significantly richer, I am personally more inclined to the possibility of high inflation, where people will lose even more savings in the next few years at banks, and the purchasing power of wages and pensions will also fall significantly further. However, the middle class will practically disappear, as the middle class will only be people with very high debts. But erasing middle class is self destructive for the economy.

All in all, in my opinion, this situation is also a kind of a financial communism, where the central banks have taken over the role of central committees in communism, as now all the spotlight is on them and everyone is closely monitoring their decisions. This is simply because the central banks have interfered with their moves (asset purchases) so much on the financial markets. Market corrections are no longer possible if central banks are buying everything. When no one wants to buy an old apartment in Ljubljana for 3000 €/m2, the central bank will buy it with printed money within the asset purchase program. The central bank, by definition, never runs out of money because it can print as much as it wants! In a normal economic environment, corrections occur and corrections are part of self-regulation. This has now been abolished. But this is not free lunch! As a result, the purchasing power of money, wages and pensions is becoming increasingly devalued and people will be able to afford less and less, and central banks balance sheets will become bigger and bigger…

At the end of this process central bank will own everything including radioactive toxic wastes?

In my opinion, they have imposed a huge burden and responsibility on themselves completely unnecessarily, because now practically everyone expects to be rescued by the central bank. Only at the expense of whom? At the expense of savers at commercial banks? At the expense of older people, who saved money all their lives to have something when they will no longer be able to work? At the expense of those who can not manage unforeseen costs of a few 100 euros without credit?

Yes, I know the excuse. The world’s central banks are just following what the US Federal Reserve is doing and US Federal Reserve is doing what Bank of Japan did. But this doesn’t reduces their responsibility. If I follow a serial killer and do exactly the same thing he does, I am no less a cruel serial killer! I’m just copycat.

I’ve seen a few frauds in my life, but this one is the most intelligent and the largest in terms of scope, as it is practically a global fraud.

In my opinion, the authors of this fraud definitely deserve their dishonorable place in history! Central banks should inspire confidence, not be a source of a major financial fraud, and being a central banker is, among other things, a great responsibility, as their decisions have a strong impact not only on the economy but can also jeopardize people’s life savings, pensions and much more. Stealing should be called stealing regardless of who is thief.

When I sent them a slightly nicer packaged reply, the ECB replied as follows:

Dear Mr Onyx,

Thank you for reverting to us with your email of 25 May 2021 and for sharing your views and observations with the European Central Bank (ECB).

We would like to inform you that your concerns have, indeed, also been addressed to the ECB by other members of the public and the ECB is taking a close look at these topics. In this regard, the ECB President Lagarde has launched the ECB strategy review, including a public consultation among stakeholders, academics, financial sector representatives, civil society organisations as well as private persons. A first summary report has been published and is accessible on the ECB website here.

You may further wish to follow the decisions and information on the review of ECB monetary policy strategy through the ECB Listens Portal.

Yours sincerely,

Internal and External Engagement Division
Directorate General Communications
Tel: +49 69 1344 1300

Further controversy with the ECB makes no sense.

With some bad luck, it can easily happen to central bankers that at the end of this financial operation (manipulation), everyone will hate them. First, savers at banks who have already lose money through inflation and 0% interest rates. At some point, it may happen that due to a too high inflation, central banks will be forced to sharply raise interest rates, which will immediately cause major problems for all those who have mortgages with a variable interest rate. Many around the world will lose their homes and houses due to their inability to repay their debts. Many zombie companies, that are only kept alive by a loose monetary policy, will fail. This is likely to be followed by a severe recession and the collapse of stock markets. At the same time many countries will find themselves in trouble, because they will no longer be able to repay high debts due to high interest rates. And the system works so that debts are paid by new loans! However, the debt of countries, expressed in GDP, will increase sharply due to the recession and lower economic activity, and consequently the fall in GDP. How to save the banks they know by now. By printing new enormous amount of money and thereby further devaluing currencies. And people around the world will stand in long lines in front of the banks to get their worthless paper money. Just like in Japan 1997. In short, the circle of people who will eventually hate central bankers could be very, very large!

If this black scenario really comes true, the blame this time will be solely on the side of the central banks and their monetary policy. For a number of years, all warnings were overheard and ignored. Oh, and eurozone (and probably even EU) will be just a past history.

The world financial and monetary system is not like a nuclear power plant, where exist very precise mathematical and physical models and can be regulated very precisely by negative feedback loops. Central banks certainly do not have such models, and such precise regulation of this system is unfortunately not possible. Therefore, there is no guarantee that this attempt will not end like a financial Chernobyl. A global financial meltdown. We hope they know what they are doing and most of all we hope that luck will be on their side. And they will need a lot of luck, because they are working against some basic principles of justice and moral gudelines.

It doesn’t mean anything yet just because I have very bad feeling about this. But I have no imagination how can this end as anything else as a new global financial and economic disaster of biblical proportions! They have never solved problems of financial crisis 2008. They have just exploited financial crisis for a new global financial fraud abusing extreme monetary measures (0% interest rates, excessive money printing) for many years and all the problems just got much bigger. There is currently a death calm, but Covid-19 was in my opinion iceberg for this Titanic called Global financial and economic system. Cracking is heard and orchestra is playing like never before. But this ship seems to sink…

When we adopted the euro in 2006, some of us were happy that it would no longer be so easy to print money, and we handed over money management to someone who could responsibly handle it. History clearly has a sense of irony. Once in Belgrade, now they are printing excesive amount of money in Frankfurt am Main – Germany.

Christine Lagarde (ECB): “We Should Be Happier to Have a Job Than to Have Our Savings Protected.”

Dr. Onyx (WTF): “Fine. But why not nationalize all private property too and install communism, where we will all have work (not just jobs!) and be happy like in North Korea? This doesn’t sound so stupid after all, does it?”

Thou shalt not steal! Stealing peoples savings is theft!

Translated by google translate. Stupid google translation repared by me.

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