Posts Tagged ‘Bitcoin’

Crypto Armagedon

21 03 2021

The market capitalization of bitcoin has reached 1,000 billion USD. One trillion USD. Given that bitcoin is global and has a market potential of 7,7 billion people, this is not an extreme number by any means. But it’s still a lot of money doing nothing. And 7.7 billion people is an extreme amount of people doing something.

Apparently, bitcoin has also been taken for granted by residents of many less developed countries around the world, where their currencies are not as stable as our euros and US dollars (it’s an insider joke!) and they need immediately to convert all their savings and earnings into something more stable. In Tito’s Yugoslavia we immediately exchanged all dinars for Deutsche mark. Only the essentials for current needs remained in dinars. And now bitcoin is in the eyes of many a kind of savior, a godsend to humanity, that will pull the poor out of poverty without much effort. They just have to carefully collect bitcoins and watch their savings grow. For 500% per year. The people of the developed world are losing savings in their devalued currencies, and the people of the poor countries are making 500% of their annual returns with bitcoins. If it is not the supreme sense of dark humor and irony of fate?

But bitcoin is also the mother of all bubbles. The fundamentals of this bubble is best explained by the joke – How do you make a small fortune from investing in Bitcoin? Start off by investing a large fortune in Bitcoin.

The problem, however, could arise when some country bans bitcoin and other kryptonites and citizens jump up, because they have taken away the only hope they have. I will not be at all surprised if somewhere this will cause a revolution or greater unrest. Currently, India is trying to ban bitcoin, but there I believe that any large-scale resistance is not possible because of this. In a smaller country, this scenario can easily happen.

However, wider-scale problems could also arise if, for some reason, the value of bitcoin plummeted to zero and those one thousand of billions will disappear in the moment. Once the big American investment banks start trading with bitcoins and his derivatives, it’s all very close to a colossal collapse! The colossal collapse is practically imminent. Don’t touch our bitcoins, you stupid cocain addicts!

So bitcoin could be that black swan that everyone has been waiting for years. This is not a completely impossible scenario and bitcoin has no safeguards, like on the stock market, to stop trading if the value falls too much, too fast. Bitcoin can go to zero in a couple of hours or even faster. Bitcoin can go to zero in true free fall. If the network that processes these transactions is not able to process them in real time, with a huge number of simultaneous transactions, the problem can arise that you can’t sell bitcoins for the price you want, but you can only sell them when it’s your turn. This is so called FIFO – First In First Out method of processing transactions. That you have to solve complex mathematical problems for each individual transaction may not be the best idea after all if there are a lot of these transactions at the same time and you don’t have such enormous computing power.

When the price of bitcoin flash crashes by a few hundred percent (I’m exaggerating, this way it turns out even more creepy!), given that quite a few holders probably have triggers set for automatic sales at a certain price, accelerating down can be powerful. In my opinion, such a black swan could immediately cause unrest or even overthrow some governments. Maybe even the CEO of Goldman Sachs in person will be flown by a helicopter or a private jet from vacation to the company’s headquarters on downtown Manhattan, New York. Where is our best mathematician and who did dismissed the risk assessment department? What an idiot put together bitcoin, dogcoin, stellar and polkacoin into one single CDS (Credit-Default Swap)? Exactly why we played with bitcoin after all?

In a classic banking system, you know exactly how much money there is, who has it and on what banking account, how it is with collateral, in short, the system is at least forcibly and seemingly under control and regulated. There is nothing like that with bitcoin. It can easily come as a shock that in some smaller and poorer countries, most residents had savings in bitcoin, as their currency is useless for storing value due to high inflation. It’s not impossible that even some central banks have all their collaterals and securities in fake bitcoins, instead of true Gold, which was created when two stars collided and is treated as precious metal. So, in this case, it would turn out that the savior was a liar and that they had nothing left and they could start all over again from the beginning. Does history actually repeat itself? Or did the savior come ahead of time and the time of the almighty bitcoin is yet to come?

However, in this case, many will jump up again, why countries allowed that bitcoin is not regulated, why gamblers were not protected, why when buying bitcoins you were not told that the value of bitcoin can fall to practically nothing overnight, why there were no warnings that the system is not able to process many simultaneous transactions, why there is no central bank in the background, that could solve the market crash by printing new bitcoins and the like. Why? Why? Oh, God why?

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? Give us Satoshi Nakamoto! Let’s crucify Satoshi Nakamoto. If he is the true Son of God, he will make bitcoin great again. Or he will die!

Power to the people and eternal glory to China bitcoin miners!

How come that they fucked up bitcoin too, the history will write.

I am writing a screenplay for a disaster movie similar to Contagion (2011), which came true in 2020 with the outbreak of a pandemic of new coronavirus. My idea is that first the cryptocurrency, which has a market share of 20 trillion USD, collapses, then mass riots and uprisings begin around the world. Cinemas can’t stay forever closed and people love spectacles. I imagine some scenes lively what they will look like.

Look at these numbers! What is going on the network? Did we just lose China from the internet? Who is processing transactions? Crap! This is going to be a big one. Sell, sell, sell… We just lost the USA and Russia too. It’s all over. Bitcoin is a gooner. Beer someone? No?

Movie working title – Crypto Armagedon.

Full disclosure: Dr. Onyx has no bitcoins in his portfolio. He does not believe in bitcoins. He thinks bitcoin is just another big scam to transfer wealth from the poor to the rich. If it was the other way around, it would have been banned by now.

Translated with Google Translate (what funny English translation do they make). NASDAQ: GOOG (P/E 33,45). HOLD? BUY? SELL?


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